There is little doubt that autonomous vehicles are the future of transportation—the number of corporate giants attached to the technology mean it will almost certainly be operational in the coming decades. But tractors with full self-driving capabilities aren’t likely to arrive for quite some time, and even when they do there are serious doubts about the speed with which they’ll be adopted. Truck drivers and freight brokers will continue to be integral to shipping operations for the foreseeable future. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the reasons why we feel confident in that assessment.

Regulation is a Slow Burn

While multiple states have enacted laws that allow automotive and tech companies to test self-driving vehicles, none have established a clear pathway to putting autonomous cars or trucks into wide use. More tellingly, recent Congressional measures aimed at relaxing legal restrictions on self-driving technology have excluded heavy-duty trucks from their language. That could be a sign that lawmakers are hesitant to greenlight automated freight hauling, either for safety or economic reasons. Whatever the motivation, though, the result is that self-driving trucks are very difficult to test under real-world conditions; perfecting an invention that can’t be tested practically is a tricky thing. Until federal regulations and those of all 50 states align, drivers and freight brokers shouldn’t be concerned about their future job prospects.

Technology Will Assist Drivers Long Before It Replaces Them

Much of the current discussion about the implications of self-driving trucks is theoretical, but it doesn’t have to be. There are real-world examples we can look to for some indications about how autonomous tractor-trailers will evolve, and the news is generally good for drivers. Consider commercial airplanes and cargo ships, both of which have had autopilot features for more than fifty years but still require oversight and occasional manual intervention from professional operators. Some analysts believe that truck drivers will follow a similar trajectory, with the profession morphing into something more akin to a helmsman or pilot for ground vehicles. The point is that autonomous operations will assist commercial drivers long before they outright replace them—if that ever happens at all.

Autonomy Equals Expense

Should we come to a point in time where tractors can operate truly autonomously without the need for human intervention at any phase of the trip, then those vehicles will most assuredly come with steep price tags and costly maintenance schedules. And even the most well-cared-for commercial vehicles suffer occasional breakdowns, flat tires, etc. What happens if an autonomous tractor pulling a refrigerated trailer gets a flat on the stretch of Route 50 that runs through Nevada? The logistic concerns for on-road repairs and hazard management snowball quickly when there’s no driver on board. Only the wealthiest shippers/freight movers will be able to build and support autonomous fleets in any sort of quick manner. Never mind that a staggering amount of freight is moved by independent owner/operators who would either not give up their jobs easily or, in a best case scenario, be the prime beneficiaries of automated trucking by getting into the game themselves. Autonomy is expensive, and very few companies will be able to foot that bill in a single shot.

A changing landscape for the trucking industry means that companies need to be increasingly informed about what’s coming down the pipeline. Planning for long-term success includes paying attention to credit scores – both for your company and your contractors. Let TransCredit help you with your credit needs.